Likely Elected Tickets: NUS (pink ballot)
Disclaimer: I've been an elected NUS Delegate for the last three years, sitting with the National Independents (Indies). As previously mentioned, I'm also quite close to Cameron Hawkins.
I'm doing this instead of SRC because it's so, so much easier to guess the likely elected tickets. This is also the election that gets the least coverage (with some good reason, to be fair) so I'm trying to fix that. I'll be posting an election round-up from around the country over the weekend which will show why getting the right delegates elected here is absolutely crucial. Spoiler alert: the left-wing groups at NUS (NLS, Indies, Socialist Alternative) are... not doing well thus far.
Let's go through the candidates with a 100% chance:
STAND UP FOR NUS (G) CANDIDATE ONE: ISABELLA BROOK (NLS)
POWER FOR NUS (E) CANDIDATE ONE: ELEANOR MORLEY (SA)
STAND UP FOR NUS (G) CANDIDATE TWO: DYLAN WILLIAMS (Unity)
To win a spot, you only need 1/8th of the total vote. So, assuming, say, 4000 formal votes, you only need 500 to get elected. Would anyone be brave enough to say Stand Up won't get at least 1000 votes? They will get two from their sole ticket, while Power's two-ticket split means that they will 100% get one elected, and are very very likely to pick up two more, one from each ticket.
Let's go to the 95% sure things:
POWER FOR FREE EDUCATION (I) CANDIDATE ONE: KIMBERLEY MURPHY (SA)
LEFT ACTION FOR NUS (D) CANDIDATE ONE: VINIL KUMAR (SA)
IGNITE FOR NUS (C) CANDIDATE ONE: KERROD GREAM (LIB)
So these assume that SLS (Ticket I will, I've been told appear on all SLS HTVs), SA, and the Mod Libs on Ignite are all capable of getting a quota or near enough to a quota to get elected. I'd say that's... pretty reasonable. In fact, all of these six spots assume a faction running will have the campaigners and votes required to get someone up (the first three are NLS, Grassroots and Unity in that order), which is exactly what you would expect.
So with six spots locked up, the breakdown is: Socialist Alternative 3, NLS 1, Unity 1, Liberals 1. For anyone that finds themselves somewhere between NLS and Socialist Alternative (read: Indies, Grassroots, SLS, Greens generally), this probably isn't ideal, nor is it great for right-of-centre punters that want some sort of left-right balance (in which case, lol, that's not how USyd has ever worked).
So, here's where the battle for seventh will play out, in no particular order:
POWER FOR NUS (E) CANDIDATE TWO: LILIY CAMPBELL (SA)
LIBERALS FOR NUS (H) CANDIDATE ONE: ALEX FITTON (LIB)
SIMPSONS FOR NUS (F) CANDIDATE ONE: CAMERON HAWKINS (IND)
Labor supporters might be wondering why the third Stand Up for NUS candidate isn't here - simply because only having the single ticket means that Stand Up would need close to three quotas to get three elected, and with such a large field I really don't see it happening. Compare that to Power: They can be competitive for three spots with, say, 1.7 and 0.7 quotas on each of their tickets - 2.4 quotas is a lot less than, say, the 2.8-3 quotas Stand Up would need to have a chance of three spots. If the election is an absolute landslide in Stand Up/Ignite's favour, then this would obviously change.
As it stands, this is impossible to pick. The split-ticket approach of Power could really help SA here, and I reckon it's the most likely - if both Power tickets break quota, you would expect the overflow from one to go into the other to give a very good chance of the second candidate from one of them getting up (there's also flow from Left Action's ticket). I've given it to the higher Power ticket on the ballot here.
No one knows how well the Liberals will fare - with potential right-wing votes being lost to (or stolen from) Ignite and the joke tickets, Fitton could either easily make a quota or struggle.
The biggest surprise packet is Hawkins. As mentioned above, expect a lot of votes from left-of-centre voters that don't want to vote for Socialist Alternative (ie campaigners themselves, who else knows that all the Power candidates are from SA?), and his name recognition will get a lot of votes too. Will it be enough to be competitive? It entirely depends on how strongly preferences flow between other tickets.
So, my hot take for how you should vote based on your political demographic?
- Socialist Alternative: Go below the line and number from the bottom up of each of the Power tickets. It gives the second place member of either ticket more of a chance without jeopardising the total amount of seats SA will likely have (no less than 3 I reckon)
- Most other lefties: Issie Brook from NLS is 100% confirmed, and Unity is a very very remote chance for a second spot, so the only other candidate close to you is Hawkins or a 4th Socialist Alternative candidate. Do with that what you will.
- Labor Right: pick your second-preference poison: Libs, SAlt or Indies. You can try going below the line and numbering from the bottom of Stand Up and Ignite to have the most remote of chances to get another spot up, but I'd say it's pretty much impossible, you're only getting one. Also, this is the faction that prides itself on "following your damn How-To-Vote", so this won't happen anyway.
- Libs: Your vote between Ignite (Gream) and Liberals (Fitton) is most likely based on which side of the #SULCAGM you were on, and you may not want to preference the other side second. Fair call, I reckon - I'm not sure it'll help regardless.